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Goldilocks Labor Market, Inflation and the FED

December 15, 2023

Last week, major U.S. equity indexes witnessed modest gains, buoyed by an employment report that hit the mark. By the week's end, the S&P 500 inched up by 0.21%, the Nasdaq 100 increased by 0.54%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average saw a marginal rise, closing higher by just 0.01%.


Record Highs for the S&P 500

Highlighting a robust week for the markets, the S&P 500 reached its highest closing level for the year on Friday, emphasizing the benefits of long-term investment discipline. This rise marked the sixth consecutive week of gains for the index, reflecting cautious optimism as investors awaited the pivotal jobs report.


The Employment Report: A "Goldilocks" Outcome

The labor market delivered a "just-right" outcome that pleased market participants. November's nonfarm payroll data revealed a seasonally adjusted gain of 199,000 jobs, slightly above the anticipated 190,000 and higher than October's increase. This favorable report, showcasing growth in healthcare and government sectors, was seen as indicative of a potential soft landing for the economy, rather than a downturn into recession. Further buoying market sentiment was the drop in the U.S. unemployment rate to 3.7%, surpassing expectations.


Treasury Yields and Market Rally

The 10-year Treasury yield, after peaking at 5% in October, experienced a significant drop, concluding the week at approximately 4.244%. This decline in yields has been a catalyst for the recent rally in U.S. stocks, although there are concerns about whether a continued fall might rekindle inflationary pressures.


Inflation and Federal Reserve Focus

With the jobs report behind, market focus shifts towards inflation data and the Federal Reserve's upcoming decisions. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November, expected to show a year-over-year increase of 3.1%, will be closely watched, following a trend of decreasing inflation since its peak in July 2022. Additionally, the Federal Reserve's rate decision is highly anticipated, with widespread expectations for rates to remain unchanged, supported by a 97.1% probability prediction from the CME FedWatch Tool as of the last market close.


Looking Ahead

This week presents a critical juncture for financial markets, with significant attention on CPI data and the Federal Reserve's statements. These factors, combined with the recent positive swing in market sentiment, underline the rapid pace at which financial landscapes can evolve. For long-term investors, the recent rally serves as a testament to the value of steadfastness and strategic planning amidst fluctuating market conditions. As the year progresses, maintaining focus on disciplined investment approaches remains paramount.

Stock Market Volatility and Its Lessons for Long-Term Investors

September 4, 2024
The sudden burst of stock market volatility in early August caught many by surprise, but what was equally surprising was how quickly it subsided. For investors, especially those focused on long-term growth, events like these can be unsettling. However, volatility is a natural part of the market cycle, and understanding how to navigate it can be key to achieving long-term success. Volatility and Emotion: Preparing for the Inevitable Volatility can often stir up fear among investors, but it’s important to remember that it’s a normal occurrence in the market. As long-term investors, anticipating volatility can actually be a tool for success. Knowing that market fluctuations will happen allows investors to mentally prepare for the emotional rollercoaster that often accompanies these events. Instead of reacting to the daily headlines or market movements, a long-term investor stays focused on broader trends and goals. For instance, despite the market's initial drop in early August, a rally quickly followed, showcasing the resilience of the U.S. stock market. Is a Pullback in the Cards? While the risk of a market pullback always looms, the broader indexes, such as the S&P 500, have been on an extended upward trajectory. In 2023 alone, the S&P 500 posted a yearly return of 24.23% (26.44% with dividends), and as of August 28, 2024, the index saw a year-to-date return of 17.29%. Given these substantial gains, a pullback might seem inevitable, but it’s important to remember that market corrections can happen quickly, as we just witnessed. Staying the course during these periods is essential for long-term investors. Election Year Volatility Election years are notorious for bringing additional volatility to the market, and historically, we are now entering the most volatile period of the year. While conventional wisdom might suggest that election years lead to heightened uncertainty, the data shows that the S&P 500 has averaged a 7% gain during U.S. presidential election years since 1952. It’s important to note that major market disruptions, such as the 2008 financial crisis, were driven more by economic factors, like the subprime mortgage crisis, than by the election itself. Understanding the broader economic picture is crucial for investors during election years. Pullbacks Can Create Opportunity For those who are prepared, market volatility can offer unique opportunities. If you have additional capital sitting on the sidelines, a market pullback might provide a chance to buy assets at lower prices, which could benefit your portfolio in the long run. Think back to the market crash during the 2008 election year or the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Those who remained calm and invested during these periods were able to reap significant rewards in the following years. It’s about maintaining a long-term perspective and resisting the urge to panic. Diversification: A Cushion Against Volatility Diversification remains one of the most reliable strategies for managing market volatility. Spreading investments across various asset classes can help cushion the impact of market swings. For example, industrials outperformed the tech sector at the end of August, while bond prices appreciated as yields dropped. By maintaining a diversified portfolio, investors can ensure that they are well-positioned to weather volatility, no matter which sectors are in or out of favor. A Final Thought  Long-term investing has historically outperformed short-term market trading. With careful planning and a focus on diversification, volatility can become an advantage rather than a threat. At Benson Wealth Management, we are always here to help you navigate these complexities and ensure that your financial strategy is aligned with your long-term goals.

July Market Highlights: Tech and AI Drive Growth

July 10, 2024
June was a positive month for diversified, long-term equity investors, with the recent rally continuing amid hopes for rate cuts. Various economic data reports throughout the month indicated signs of easing inflation, supporting market optimism. Major Stock Indexes The stock market rally in June was driven by the technology and artificial intelligence (AI) sectors. Tech & AI giant Nvidia played a significant role in propelling broader averages, including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, higher. S&P 500: Increased by 3.47% Nasdaq 100: Rose by 6.18% Dow Jones Industrial Average: Went up by 1.12% Payroll Whopper The employment report for May, released in June, showed a surprising increase in job numbers, with 272,000 new jobs created, surpassing the estimated 190,000. This was a significant jump from the 175,000 jobs added in April. The primary job gains were in healthcare, government, and leisure and hospitality sectors. These trends signal a strong economy, although they also raise questions about the timing of potential interest rate cuts. Supportive U.S. Inflation Data June brought positive news for investors hopeful for rate cuts, with inflation-busting optimism in full swing. Consumer Price Index (CPI): May's month-over-month pricing showed no increase, with a 3.3% year-over-year increase, both below market expectations. The Core CPI rose by 0.2% compared to April, falling below the predicted 0.3%. The annual core CPI rate unexpectedly decreased to 3.4% from 3.6% in April. Producer Price Index (PPI): For May, the PPI for final demand fell by 0.2% on a monthly basis, contrary to expectations of a 0.1% increase. Core PPI remained unchanged in May and decreased to 2.3% year-over-year. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 reacted positively to this softer inflation data, trading near all-time highs by the end of June. Fed Rate Decision & Outlook As anticipated, the Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged at its June policy meeting and hinted at a more aggressive stance on future rate policy. The Fed indicated that it is considering one rate cut in 2024. “We believe that policy is restrictive. And we believe that if you maintain policy at a restrictive level, you will eventually see a real weakening in the economy,” stated Powell. He also noted that while rate hikes are not ruled out, they are not the most likely scenario. Treasury Yields Treasury yields were slightly lower in June compared to May. The 10-year Treasury Note Yield closed the month near 4.342%, about 17.3 basis points lower than May’s closing level of 4.515%. This steady to slightly lower rate was welcome news for mortgage borrowing activity. The Takeaway June featured a continuation of the rally that began in November, driven by excitement surrounding AI, steadier interest rates, solid economic data, and a supportive Fed outlook. The market expects rate cuts beginning in September, contingent on further evidence that inflation has cooled sufficiently.  If you have been considering your options in the financial markets or have ideas, feel free to reach out to Benson Wealth Management INC. We are always here as a resource for you.

June Market Review: Strong Performances and Key Developments

June 21, 2024
S&P 500: Rally Resumption The major U.S. equity market indexes resumed their impressive rallies in May, with the S&P 500 leading the charge. This broadest measure of the U.S. economy clawed back all of the consolidation from April and closed at a fresh monthly high. Marking six out of the last seven months in the green, the S&P 500 experienced its best May since 2009, adding 4.80%. Alongside this, the Nasdaq 100 rose by 6.28%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 2.30%. For long-term investors, these gains reinforce the robust health of the equity markets. Tech Leads the Way May was particularly strong for the technology sector, with major players such as Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta accounting for 76% of the S&P 500's gains. The information technology sector exhibited notable strength towards the end of the month, showcasing a solid earnings season. Among the S&P 500 sectors, the information technology sector reported the third highest earnings growth, led by companies like Nvidia Corp, Broadcom, Fair Isaac and Company, and Super Micro Computer. Fed Meeting: Impacts and Outlook The Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 5.25% - 5.50% during their May 1st meeting, as anticipated. The Fed's statement emphasized that reducing the target range would not be appropriate until there is greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent. Following the meeting, the S&P 500 experienced a slight dip but quickly recovered, as markets were buoyed by Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s hint that a rate hike would not be the next move. This sentiment helped stabilize the markets as the month progressed. Earnings Surprises Attention shifted to Q1 earnings season after the Fed meeting catalyzed a low for the S&P 500 on May 1st. By May 31st, 98% of S&P 500 companies had reported their earnings, with 78% delivering a positive earnings per share (EPS) surprise and 61% reporting a positive revenue surprise. Companies like NVIDIA, Alphabet, Amazon.com, Meta Platforms, and Microsoft were significant contributors to the overall earnings growth, providing a much-needed boost amidst ongoing inflation and high interest rates. Consumer Moods and Inflation Data Consumer sentiment showed mixed signals in May. According to the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, sentiment dropped by about 13% compared to April, reflecting inflation concerns. However, subsequent consumer confidence data indicated an improvement, with the index rising to 102.0 from April's 97.5, surpassing the forecast of 96.0. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data revealed a slight easing in consumer inflation for April, with a 0.3% increase from March and a 3.4% year-over-year increase. Encouragingly, the Core CPI showed a 3.6% year-over-year rise, the lowest since April 2021. The markets responded positively, with the S&P 500 reaching a record-high close on the day of the CPI data release. The Producer Price Index (PPI) data indicated a 0.5% rise in April, surpassing estimates, with services pricing contributing significantly. Despite initial unease, stock index futures remained nearly flat, but stocks rose following the CPI report, aligning with market expectations. Strong Labor Market Data The April employment data, released on May 3rd, showed an increase of 175,000 payrolls, below the estimated 240,000. Surprisingly, this was seen as positive, potentially strengthening the case for future rate cuts. The unemployment rate edged up to 3.9% from 3.8% in March, further fueling optimism for softer upcoming inflation data. Fed & the Future As of the end of May, there was a 99.9% probability that the Fed would leave rates unchanged at the June 12th meeting and a 14.5% chance of a rate cut at the July 31st meeting. The highest probability for a rate cut surrounds the September 18th meeting, with a 53.9% chance at the end of May. The Takeaway May featured a resumption of rallies for major stock indexes, solid corporate earnings, slightly lower interest rates, and varying economic data, all contributing to a favorable market environment. As June began, the S&P 500 was riding high on the momentum of a significant rally on the last day of May. Whether this signals more to come remains to be seen as the month unfolds. For more insights and personalized financial advice, consider reaching out to Benson Wealth Management INC. Our team is here to help you navigate the ever-changing financial landscape with confidence.
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